The most affected manufacturers will be those who produce cells but lack module manufacturing capacity, as well as those using outdated technologies (such as PERC or low-efficiency TOPCon). Forecasts suggest the wave of bankruptcies will mainly impact Tier 2 and Tier 3 manufacturers, which may help ease the supply-demand imbalance. It is also possible that these companies will repurpose their facilities to serve other industries.
Polysilicon prices have already started to rise, and cell prices are expected to follow this trend. Tier 1 manufacturers have not reduced their capacities, but since December, they have limited production volumes following a self-discipline agreement introduced by the Chinese government. Under this agreement, production is expected to reach 650 GW this year, which appears sufficient to meet global PV demand ranging between 600–700 GW. Currently, global operational module manufacturing capacity stands at 1.491 TW, of which 1.188 TW is located in China. These Chinese production restrictions could create an artificial shortage of modules. The policies aim to support the largest manufacturers, while smaller players using less efficient technologies may exit the market.
Experts believe that the technology shift could happen quickly, and PERC technology is expected to disappear by the end of 2025 or even earlier. Furthermore, no new TOPCon facilities have been announced this year.
The price of Tier 1 modules is soon expected to exceed USD 0.12/W, and the market may return to pre-COVID price levels, stabilizing between USD 0.12–0.15/W by the end of 2025, depending on the technology. Although cheaper, lower-quality modules may still be available in the short term, they will gradually be phased out. Suppliers and cell manufacturers are trying to recover previous losses, leaving little room for price negotiations for buyers.
Source: PV Magazine
Image for illustration purposes only – Source: AdobeStock
